Fantasy managers! Now is the time to Get ready for your fantasy football drafts. And to help get you up to speed, I’m going to break down the highs and lows for the Average Draft Position (ADP) each week until launch.
ADP is just a tool for determining when (on average) a player is selected in the drafts. This doesn’t preclude you from “getting your man,” but it may offer some perspective on where to pick certain players.
Are they in a positional battle? Are there fears of infection? What about contractual disputes?
Fantasy football is all about staying on top of it, and I’ll help decipher what drives ADP’s ups and downs until the season officially begins on September 7th.
Daniel Jones – New York Giants
Pre-season ADP: 104.2
Last seven days ADP: 88.7
The fantasy directors must be warming to the idea of Jones being the QB1 this season, and I don’t think they’re wrong about that. Jones’ movement over the past seven days has been higher than any player I’ve covered over the past four weeks, going from QB12 to QB9 over that span.
He broke out last season, being named QB9 in fantasy points per game and QB10 in fantasy points per game under head coach Brian Dabol — the coach largely responsible for Josh Allen’s growth. With an average wide receiving range, Jones threw for 3,200 yards with 15 TDs and only five interceptions.
However, his value lies in his legs.
He was one of five QBs who rushed for over 700 yards last season and added seven more rushing scores. Deshaun Watson and Anthony Richardson are the only two QBs you’ll find after the eighth inning That much Potential rush into fantasy this season.
Upside aside, the Giants added Darren Waller to improve their receiving team, which should help open up the passing game even more this season.
Yahoo Fantasy’s draft analysis tool shows that despite being a QB9, Watson (QB10) and Dak Prescott (QB11) go ahead of Jones in fantasy drafts. I prefer Jones over both, so if you can wait, Jones is an underrated option in later rounds of fantasy drafts.
First, I’ll highlight the movement from two influential moves over the past week — Ezekiel Elliott signing with the New England Patriots and Dalvin Cook striking a deal with the Jets.
Ezekiel Elliott – New England Patriots
Pre-season ADP: 122.4
ADP last seven days: 117.3
Many expected Zeke to join the Dallas Cowboys, but he chose a change of scenery, going to the New England Patriots. He plans to take over As the starting shortstop and goal-line player, the role Damien Harris held last season.
Zeke’s arrival is eating into Rhamondre Stevenson’s stock a bit, as he has slipped from RB10 to RB14 over the past four weeks. Although Elliott is nearing the end of his career with a lot of stomping on his tires, his presence brings a huge risk of drafting Stevenson within the first 30 fantasy draft picks.
I’m not saying I’m completely out of Stevenson – He excelled in the multi-linebacker system last season And he has the skills to retain most touches (rushing and receiving) from the backfield.
And while I initially thought it could be due to some TD positive slope like bell back (He had a 9.3 touchdown projected last season), Elliott’s arrival is likely to pull off some high-leverage scoring situations near the goal line.
Both RBs will be in range of the running RB2 if there’s an injury, but for now, Elliott could be drafted as a touch-based backup with a path to more if Stevenson ever misses.
Dalvin Cook – New York Jets
Pre-season ADP: 72.6
ADP last seven days: 75.6
The Jets activated Breece Hall from the PUP roster, throwing another wrench into fantasy managers who expect Cook to “cook.” He’s approaching the age of an RB running back (he’s 27), but he’s coming off his fourth consecutive season with at least 1,300 scrimmage yards. In addition, he has scored at least 10 total touchdowns in three of the last four seasons as well. The advanced metrics aren’t very kind to him, but Cook is still an effective fantasy running back, drawing the sixth-most red zone touches and the fifth-highest early post. He also ranked 10th in projected fantasy points per game among reserve players last year, per player profile.
But I do have some concerns about his outlook throughout the full NFL season. The Jets have said they will bring Hall in slowly, so early on, Cook projects will be a major factor in the Jets’ offensive scheme.
But what happens when Hall returns to nearly full capacity? He was one of the most explosive runners in the past year before his injury, and he’s already combined 1’s in practice:
Hall’s ADP has fallen from 25 to 35 over the past month, largely because the Jets said publicly that they would be careful with the RB for a second year. But this begs the question, which return is more cost-effective? Given his chance early on, Cook in the seventh round looks solid, but Hall’s fall to the end of the third, or maybe even the fourth, is also interesting.
Either way, the Jets’ offensive line should play better – as evidenced by the latest episode of “Hard Knocks” – but that’s probably the timeshare I’m avoiding in fantasy this season.
Rashad Beene – Philadelphia Eagles
Pre-season ADP: 99.2
Last 7 days of ADP: 110.0
Trying to get a read on the Eagles back situation is heartbreaking. despite of D’Andre Swift holds the highest ADP (84.8), Kenneth Ginwell Gains the most power while Penny goes down faster than any skill player in fantasy.
What’s most worrying about Benny is the possibility of him getting cut. He owes a $600,000 salary this season, which is less than longtime Boston Eagle vet Scott, so it’s not like that. no Changeable.
Even if he remains on the Eagles’ roster, his appeal is waning by the day if he’s already behind Swift, Gainwell, and… Scott Click order. Penny has shown that when he’s healthy, he can be one of the most productive defenders in the league. But with so much competition ahead and ahead of him You clearly lack the rush to get to the second level (where he excelled previously), I’d rather go to Zach Charbonnet (120), Antonio Gibson (113) and Gynuel (121), all of whom are around the 110-120 range in fantasy drafts.
I think it’s worth noting that for the third week in a row, Tony Cadarius (126), Treylon Burks’ (121.3). And DeAndre Hopkins (62.2) has more ADPs than any wide receiver in fantasy football.
I’ll continue to monitor this trend because, in the case of Birx and Tony, they’re dealing with injuries, but I haven’t been able to pinpoint a reason for Hopkins’ depreciation without notable injuries or performance concerns. Maybe DHop just slips away on the strength of the Titans heavy approach and has Ryan Tannehill at QB. But be that as it may, DHop has dropped at least three points every week for the past month.