The Resurgence of the 2016 Voter Base in 2024 of Donald Trump

Estimated read time 4 min read

Donald Trump is on the rise, instead, President Joe Biden currently grapples with approval ratings below the 50% mark. While this circumstance would typically give rise to worries for an incumbent entering a re-election year, Biden consistently falls back on a common response: “Don’t compare me to the Almighty, compare me to the alternative.” Essentially, he suggests that voters may not find him the most likable candidate, but they will prefer him to whomever the Republicans put forward. However, recent polling data suggests that Biden’s assumptions could be fundamentally flawed, putting his 2024 re-election prospects at risk.

The Donald Trump Factor

Currently, it seems that Donald Trump is the probable Republican choice to go up against Biden in a hypothetical 2024 general election contest. Trump consistently leads every GOP primary poll by a significant margin, including the latest CNN/SSRS survey. Remarkably, Trump shares a similar level of unpopularity with Biden. Our latest poll indicates a 35% favorability rating for Trump among registered voters, closely mirroring Biden’s 36% favorability rating among the same demographic.

What’s noteworthy is that those who like Trump do so by a margin of more than 90 points over Biden, while those who favor Biden express a similar preference over Trump. This sets the stage for a contentious election in which the outcome hinges on the 29% of voters who, according to our poll, hold a favorable view of neither candidate. This 29% includes the 9% of voters who remain undecided about one or both candidates, but even when we focus on the 20% who hold an unfavorable view of both candidates, often referred to as “double haters,” the following analysis still holds.

Donald Trump 2016 Election: A Familiar Scenario

The scenario we are witnessing now bears a striking resemblance to the dynamics of the 2016 election. In that year, nearly 20% of voters expressed a dislike for both Democrat Hillary Clinton and Trump. Surprisingly, Trump managed to secure this group by a 17-point margin, ultimately winning the election.

At the start of the year, Biden appeared to have a slight advantage over Trump among voters who didn’t hold a favorable view of either candidate. However, our most recent survey indicates that Trump now leads Biden by 7 points within the 29% of voters who view neither candidate favorably. Importantly, a notable portion of this group (21%) stated they either won’t cast a vote or will choose another candidate in a Trump-Biden match-up. While a 7-point gap is within the margin of error, recent polls from Quinnipiac University and The New York Times/Siena College also explored similar demographics – those who neither favored nor disliked either candidate. In both cases, Trump emerged with a single-digit lead, with a significant number of voters expressing a reluctance to support either major-party nominee.

Joe Biden’s Troubling Reality

As well, this data reveals a clear signal: A substantial number of voters who do not favor Biden are weighing him against the alternative, whom they also dislike, and are finding the alternative less objectionable. Moreover, many of them are not willing to make a choice and are considering voting for someone else or not voting at all. If this trend continues, Biden’s strategy for the 2024 election is in serious jeopardy.

Then, President Biden might not be overly concerned, assuming that those who hold unfavorable views of both him and Trump predominantly come from segments of the electorate that lean towards him and can be persuaded to return to his camp as the election progresses. Nonetheless, our survey data challenges this presumption. Within this demographic, 42% align with the Republican party (or are independents leaning towards the Republican party), 41% align with the Democratic party (or are independents leaning towards the Democratic party), and 17% identify as unaffiliated independents.

This demographic breakdown closely mirrors the overall composition of the electorate. Even when we consider only those who hold unfavorable views of both candidates and have expressed no intention of voting for either at this point, Democrats are not significantly overrepresented. In other words, there is currently no compelling reason to believe that this block of voters will shift toward Biden unless there are significant changes in the political landscape.

Donald Trump, a threat to Biden’s Re-election

Also, with approximately 14 months remaining until the 2024 election, there is ample room for political dynamics to shift. This presents a glimmer of hope for President Biden amid a sea of otherwise disconcerting data. Nonetheless, the resurgence of the Trump voter base from 2016 poses a significant challenge to Biden’s re-election prospects. As the political landscape continues to evolve, both candidates will need to carefully strategize their campaigns to win over the crucial segment of voters who currently find neither option appealing.

You May Also Like

More From Author

+ There are no comments

Add yours